Tuesday, May 29, 2012

What Happened During the 1870s?

Source: Historical Statistics of the United States Millenial Edition series ca 9, ca11 and ca19.  


jeremy h. said...

From the data notes for this series (emphasis added):

"before 1929 the intercensal data are generally less reliable than the figures for the census benchmark years (those ending in nine for 1869–1929 and ending in zero for 1790–1860). These continuous series are of value primarily for indicating long-run trends. They should not be used to study economic fluctuations or the interrelationship between price change and output movements."

Bradley A. Hansen said...

This caveat is appropriate for the GDP estimates. The Davis series on industrial production is, however, intended for business cycle analysis, and the GDP estimates are reasonabley consistent with the Davis index during this period.