North and Kuran Video

Douglass North and Timur Kuran discuss institutions and economic performance. Kuran gives a good taste of the argument in his latest book, The Long Divergence.

Great Stagnation

There has been a great deal of discussion regarding innovation prompted by Tyler Cowen's new book The Great Stagnation. Part of the argument is that the rate of innovation has slowed. He acknowledges innovation in information technology but seems to discount its importance to the general population. While I think its clear that innovation and changes in productivity are not constant over time, I'm skeptical that we are in the midst of period of unusually slow rates of innovation, or that the changes in information technology have not had a large and widespread influence. This is what I wrote in The National Economy in 2006

" Observation of everyday life appears to support the productivity data and suggests the rate of innovation accelerated during the 1990s and the first decade of the twenty-first century. In 1985, most college students, like students for decades before them, went to the library to do research with books and journals, took hand-written notes, and typed papers on typewriters while listening to vinyl records. In 2005, students use laptop computers, smaller than portable typewriters, to access more research material online than was available in many college libraries in the 1980s. They type up papers on the same laptop using a word processing program that points out spelling and grammatical errors, and allows them to edit by cutting and pasting without having to retype anything. The vinyl records, first replaced by CDs, are now replaced by other electronic forms of music storage, with thousands of songs stored in devices the size of on old tape cassette. They carry phones smaller than a wallet, and the phones can make calls, store phone numbers, send text messages, receive voice mail, take and send video images, store information, and serve as a calculator."

One might note that I was writing about college students, but looking around now I believe I could say virtually the same thing of 5th graders surfing the internet, while listening to iPods, and texting.

What I'm Reading

Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008 by Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor you can find a copy here.

What I am watching

John Nye on institutions and economic development

Peace Corps

UMW ranks first among small colleges and universities in Peace Corps volunteers

college and debt

From "A Lifetime of of Student Debt? Not Likely" By Robin Wilson in the Chronicle of Higher Education

"In fact, despite stories of a large number of students who face gargantuan debt, about a third of graduates leave college with no debt at all for their education. Of the 65 percent who face debt, the average they owe is around $20,000. That's just below the starting price of a 2009 Ford Escape.

"Most people borrow a reasonable amount of money, they pay it back, and they are better for having gone to college," says Mr. McPherson.

But for a vocal minority of borrowers, problems with student-loan debt are very real. About 8 percent of undergraduates borrow at least double the national average.

Why do some students borrow more than $40,000 for a bachelor's degree when average borrowing is only half that? The answer is almost never that they are from very low-income families and need that much money to get a four-year degree. Public four-year colleges charged an average of just $6,585 for in-state tuition and fees in 2008-9. The total cost, including textbooks, room and board, and other living expenses, averages $18,326 a year — and financial aid brings that figure down for many students."

Still number one

Manufacturing in the United States